The time has come for the most important stretch of games. The journey to 16 grueling wins begins now for the Colorado Avalanche.

And they couldn’t start it off against a tougher opponent than the Dallas Stars.

These two will face off once again for the seventh time in a playoff series. Dallas holds the overall advantage 4-2, including their fourth series win last year against the Avs. They met in the second round, which went six games. In double overtime of said sixth game, former Av Matt Duchene scored against his boyhood club to shatter hearts at Ball Arena.

While the Stars do have the overall advantage, Colorado has things on their side heading into this series. Plus, they are 2-0 over Dallas when they have met in the first round. Storylines are aplenty in this matchup, sure to garner attention outside of those in Denver and Dallas.

Flying forwards

Both teams boast a phenomenal forward line. The Avalanche holds the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Valeri Nichushkin, Jonathan Drouin, and Artturi Lehkonen. On the other side, the aforementioned Duchene still breaks Colorado hearts. But he too is joined by another former Av who has turned heel: Mikko Rantanen.

Rantanen was traded by the Avalanche to the Carolina Hurricanes in return for Necas and another depth forward, Jack Drury. Colorado couldn’t have anticipated the Canes flipping him back to a division rival, where he signed an eight-year, $12 million contract.

However, Rantanen has certainly taken a step back. He has not been the same player without MacKinnon, whereas Necas has thrived with MacKinnon. He has had the slack picked up around him, though, with the return of Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn doing what he usually does.

There are big questions for both forward groups, however. Jason Robertson was injured in Game 82 against the Nashville Predators on Wednesday night in a 5-1 loss. It was a meaningless game and ended up costing Dallas, as he left the arena in pain in a brace. His status is currently unknown.

In the other locker room, the status and questioning are more about excitement than worry. Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog may find his way back on the ice with the Avs for the first time in three years. He had a successful conditioning stint with the Colorado Eagles. Seemingly doing well, he could slot in and bolster an already deep Avalanche forward line.

He would likely be far from where he was pre-injury, but any help Colorado can get will help. Forward depth just may be the difference in this game. So could forward scoring on the power play. Dallas has only been 19th-best since trading for Rantanen on the man advantage, whereas Colorado is fourth-best.

Defensive deadlocks

Dallas also has questions on the backend. They will be without star Miro Hiskanen at least to start the series. Nils Lundkvist is also on LTIR after having shoulder surgery and missing the rest of the year.

Thomas Harley has been the one who has stepped up brilliantly. He was put in the spotlight at the Four Nations Face-Off in Team Canada’s win. Not only can he shut down plays and block shots, he can also score in bunches. In 78 games, he had 16 goals and 34 assists for 50 points.

However, neither he nor any of the other defenders go up against Cale Makar and Devon Toews.

The defensive duo for Colorado continues to reign supreme on the blue line. Makar became the first defender in over a decade to score 30 goals in a single season. He ended the year with 92 points. Meanwhile, Toews continued playing alongside Makar, simply playing his game and never getting enough respect for it.

Behind them, the partnership of Samuel Girard and Sam Malinski has blossomed nicely. Malinski, in particular, has shown time and time again the wicked shot he has. Girard has been a steady presence when healthy in the lineup, continuing to look like a bargain.

However, the big question for Colorado is whether they can keep up with their defensive depth. Josh Manson should be returning from injury, but can he stay healthy and play well? The same can be asked of newly-acquired Ryan Lindgren.

If any defender goes down, then one of Erik Johnson or Keaton Middleton would slot in. EJ’s welcome back into the locker room has been nice, but he is far from the first-overall-pick player he once was. Middleton, who didn’t become an NHL regular until this season, might struggle with the speed of playoff hockey with his size and tenacity.

Nonetheless, the advantage goes to Colorado on the blue line. But any significant changes for either side, particularly if the Avs lose a defender and Dallas gets Hiskanen back, could swing the momentum.

Goaltending glory

Perhaps the biggest change in a season full of changes for Colorado came in the crease. In the span of two weeks, they flipped Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen for Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. Since then, goaltending has led the turnaround of the entire season for the Avalanche.

Blackwood was rewarded with a new five-year contract after the trade. He looks to be the man going forward for the Avs, but has had some struggles at the end of the regular season.

Blackwood is 1-4-0 in his last five games with a .879 save percentage and 3.50 goals-against average. Meanwhile, Wedgewood is 4-0-1 with a save percentage of .917 and a 1.72 goals-against average in his last games. Blackwood has never played in the playoffs and might have some nerves, and Wedgewood only has three games under his belt, all relief appearances.

Jared Bednar has already shared Blackwood will be getting the nod. However, there is some comfort knowing Wedgewood can step up when called upon, as he has all season long. It feels similar to the 2022 Stanley Cup run, where Pavel Francouz stepped up and was brilliant whenever Darcy Kuemper was down and out. So long as they can both get help ahead of them, they shouldn’t be a cause of concern.

Dallas likely has the advantage here, however. Jake Oettinger has been a perennial threat in the crease for years, shutting down offenses time and time again. The 26-year-old has 36 wins in 58 games with a 2.59 goals-against average and a save percentage of .909. In the playoffs, he is even better with a 2.46 GAA and .916 SV%.

Behind him, Casey DeSmith has been a reliable backup similar to Wedgewood for Colorado. In 27 games, he has a 2.59 GAA and .915 SV%. Similar to Wedgewood too, he only has three games of playoff experience combined between his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vancouver Canucks.

Other observations

Special teams are also crucial to both teams’ ventures. Dallas is right in the middle of the pack at 17th overall on the power play. Meanwhile, Colorado is ranked eighth. They’d go up against a highly-ranked penalty kill, with Dallas ranked fourth overall on the PK. Meanwhile, the Avs are 12th-ranked.

Both are ranked in the top six when it comes to goals per game. Dallas is third with 3.35, and Colorado is sixth with 3.33. They are similarly ranked when it comes to goals for and against. Dallas has 276 goals for and 219 against. Meanwhile, the Avalanche have 277 goals for and 234 against.

When these two played this season, the Avs led the season series 2-1, winning both of those games at home. Nonetheless, it’s bound to be an incredibly close series. Both are in the top five of the Western Conference, and unfortunately, one will fall at the first hurdle.

Who has the overall edge?

Take your pick and flip a coin. That is who has the edge – it’s a 50-50 split across the board.

Colorado Avalanche Projected Lines

Artturi Lehkonen (62) – Nathan MacKinnon (29) – Martin Necas (88)
Jonathan Drouin (27) – Brock Nelson (11) – Valeri Nichushkin (13)
Joel Kiviranta (94) – Charlie Coyle (10) – Ross Colton (20)
Parker Kelly (17) – Jack Drury (18) – Logan O’Connor (25)

Devon Toews (7) – Cale Makar (8)
Samuel Girard (49) – Josh Manson (42)
Ryan Lindgren (55) – Sam Malinski (70)

Mackenzie Blackwood (39)
Scott Wedgewood (41)

Extras: Miles Wood (28), Erik Johnson (6), Keaton Middleton (67), Kevin Mandolese (31), Jimmy Vesey (26), Gabriel Landeskog (92)

Dallas Stars Projected Lines

Jason Robertson (21) – Roope Hintz (24) – Mikael Granlund (64)
Mason Marchment (27) – Matt Duchene (95) – Tyler Seguin (91)
Jamie Benn (14) – Wyatt Johnston (53) – Mikko Rantanen (96)
Evgenii Dadanov (63) – Sam Steel (18) – Mavrik Bourque (22)

Thomas Harley (55) – Ilya Lyubushkin (46)
Esa Lindell (23) – Cody Ceci (44)
Brendan Smith (2) – Matt Dumba (3)

Jake Oettinger (29)
Casey DeSmith (1)

Extras: Miro Hiskanen (4), Lian Bichsel (6), Oskar Back (10), Colin Blackwell (15), Alexander Petrovic (28)

Series Schedule Details